Bitcoin Long-Term Holders MVRV Drops to 3-Year Low While Holdings Hit All-Time High: Divergent Signals Near Market Bottom

CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. reports that the Bitcoin long-term holder MVRV ratio has compressed to 1.24, the lowest in nearly three years. The cost basis has risen to $48,400, with BTC price at $59,000, leaving only 24% average profit and a 19% gap. Despite shrinking margins, long-term holder holdings reached a record 16.1 million BTC, while sell-side metrics remain low, indicating holders are absorbing supply rather than selling. Historically, MVRV near 1 signals cycle bottoms, but the current level has not entered the 'green capitulation zone'. Key downside risk is a breakdown below $48,400 accompanied by a surge in selling, which could trigger a capitulation event among the most steadfast holders.